Investments through participatory notes (P-notes) in the Indian capital market surged to Rs 78,686 crore at October-end, making it the highest level in 14 months, on enhanced global liquidity and measures taken by the government back home. P-notes are issued by registered foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to overseas investors who wish to be part of the Indian stock market without registering themselves directly. They, however, need to go through a due diligence process.
The ongoing fourth quarter earnings season, global factors and macroeconomic data would guide the trends in the equity markets this week, analysts said. Markets would also take cues from trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trend and movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude. "Domestically, the next batch of Q4 earnings reports will drive stock-specific movements, Hero MotoCorp, Larsen & Toubro, BPCL, State Bank of India, Eicher Motors and Tata Motors are some of the big names in the list and the next phase of voting," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
The RBI's financial stability report has on Wednesday highlighted the disconnect between the real economy and equity market yet again. The central bank observed that Indian equities were trading at rich valuations, with several metrics such as price to earnings multiples, price to book ratio, market cap to GDP and the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or Shiller P/E, at above historical averages. For instance, as on December 13, the one-year forward P/E ratio for India was 35.1 per cent, above its 10-year average, and one of the highest in the world.
Indices across Indian equity markets have edged towards new record highs before undergoing a small correction in the past few sessions. The National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 20 per cent in the past year; mid-caps (up 33 per cent), small-caps (up 31 per cent), and micro-caps (up 44 per cent) have done better. Several factors have precipitated this rally.
Huge inflow thanks to low inflation levels and RBI rate cut
From the Sensex pack, State Bank of India, Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Steel and Tata Motors were the major gainers. Power Grid and HDFC Bank were the laggards from the pack.
M&M was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 5 per cent, followed by Kotak Bank, Bajaj Finance, Nestle India, SBI, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and ONGC. On the other hand, NTPC, IndusInd Bank, Bharti Airtel and Maruti were among the laggards.
Foreign investors have pumped in a staggering Rs 98,802 crore or Rs 988.02 billion.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said 67 per cent of the decline in the foreign exchange reserves since April was due to valuation changes arising from strengthening US dollar and higher American bond yields. The forex reserves, which stood at $606.475 billion as on April 2, have declined to $537.5 billion as on September 23. It was also the eighth straight week when the reserves declined.
Heavy unwinding by foreign portfolio investors and lacklustre equities dampened the sentiment
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The benchmark Sensex is 2.4 per cent shy of a new lifetime high but the market capitalisation (m-cap) of all companies listed on the BSE is already in the record books. At Thursday's (August 18) closing price, the total m-cap of 4,776 firms on the BSE stood at Rs 280.5 trillion, surpassing the previous high of Rs 280 trillion on January 17. This, even if the Nifty Midcap 100 is currently 5.4 per cent below its lifetime high, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 index is down over 20 per cent.
In the Sensex pack, gainers included HCL Tech, SBI, ITC, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharma, Yes Bank, Axis Bank, TCS, Asian Paints, ICICI Bank, TCS, Bajaj Finance and Infosys, jumping up to 3.84 per cent.
The hospitality industry has around 212,000 rooms, with an industry size of about Rs 82,000 crore. The industry could grow at an annual rate of 10.5 per cent for the next three financial years, despite a quiet Q1FY25. The demand will be driven by domestic travellers, who will contribute roughly 50 per cent of the growth, while foreign tourists will account for 30 per cent.
Trading volumes for the equities cash segment remained soft, even as the benchmark indices rallied nearly 9 per cent in July. Meanwhile, volumes in the futures and options (F&O) market dipped marginally, but continued to hover at record levels. In July, the average daily turnover (ADTV) for the cash segment was Rs 46,602 crore, up 4.5 per cent month-on-month (MoM), but 26 per cent lower than the preceding 12-month average.
Over 87 per cent of active large-cap schemes failed to outperform the benchmark S&P BSE 100 (total return) in the 2022 calendar year (CY), significantly higher than the 2021 figure of 50 per cent, shows a report by S&P Dow Jones Indices. During the three-year period (CY 2020, '21, '22), the percentage of schemes underperforming the index was even higher at 97 per cent. While active large-cap schemes generally find it tough to outperform due to a rising efficiency in the market, 2022 proved to be even more challenging as mid-cap and small-cap stocks (where they have some allocation) performed poorly vis-a-vis the large-caps.
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Foreign investors have pulled over Rs 6,400 crore from the Indian equity market in the first four trading sessions of the ongoing month when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and US Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Given the headwinds in terms of elevated crude prices, inflation, tight monetary policy among others, FPIs' flows in India are expected to remain volatile in the near term, Shrikant Chouhan, Head - Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities, said. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) remained net sellers for seven months to April 2022, withdrawing a massive amount of over Rs 1.65 lakh crore from equities. This was largely on the back of anticipation of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and due to the deteriorating geopolitical environment following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Investments through participatory notes (P-notes) in the Indian capital market surged to a 27-month high of Rs 83,114 crore at November-end driven by continued liquidity and improvement in second quarter corporate earnings. P-notes are issued by registered foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to overseas investors who wish to be part of the Indian stock market without registering themselves directly. They, however, need to go through a due diligence process. According to Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) data, the value of P-note investments in Indian markets -- equity, debt and hybrid securities -- increased to Rs 83,114 crore at November-end from Rs 78,686 crore at October-end.
While FIIs have pumped in nearly Rs 17,000 crore, MFs have been net buyers to the tune of Rs 9,000 crore.
Selling took hold at the start of October futures and options series in the derivatives segment as investors were concerned over the surging crude oil prices and escalating trade tensions between the US and China
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Rising crude oil prices, traction in China equities and inflation concerns back home are casting a shadow on the Indian equity markets in the short term, believe analysts at Jefferies. They said this could see the markets remaining range-bound in the near term before the next leg up.
The legislation is being implemented by the Corporate Affairs Ministry. Many provisions of the new law came into effect from April 1.
Investors turned cautious after India's trade deficit widened to a more than three-and-a-half-year high of $16.6 billion due to costlier crude oil imports
'It is unlikely that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) might increase their India allocation, given the overweight status for most FPIs.' 'Given the commentary from the Republican Party, an anti-imports approach means money will not flow out of the US.'
On a weekly basis, the Sensex scored a moderate gain of 76.57 points, or 0.22 per cent while the Nifty rose 8.75 points, or 0.08 per cent.
Top gainers in the Sensex pack included Maruti, Bajaj Finance, Vedanta, HDFC twins, HUL, Kotak Bank and ICICI bank, which surged up to 3.36 per cent.
2023 could be another volatile year for Indian equity markets, according to BofA. In a report, the brokerage pointed out that the Nifty50, at present, is trading at 20.7x against its long-term average of 18.8x one-year forward earnings of current Nifty constituents. Plus, India is trading at a 98 per cent premium to its emerging market (EM) peers against its long-term average of 45 per cent.
Better-than-expected quarterly earnings by select index heavyweights, easing of US-EU trade tensions and firm foreign capital inflows boosted investor sentiment, brokers said.
The broader 50-issue NSE Nifty slipped from its record closing, shedding 2.30 points or 0.02 per cent to end at 11,132.00.
A key trigger for the increased retail participation in equities has been the lockdown triggered by Covid-19 that saw investors channelising their savings to capital markets in search of better return on their investments and the need to increase their disposable income.
The NSE 50-share index finally concluded at 10,417.15, up 14.90 points
The exports in 2022-2023 was $79 billion, compared to imports of $50 billion.
Equity benchmark Sensex rallied 487 points on Monday to close at a fresh lifetime peak, tracking gains in Infosys, HDFC twins and HCL Tech amid massive foreign fund inflows.
Mutual funds focused on investing in fixed-income securities witnessed a heavy outflow of Rs 92,248 crore in June on uncertain macro environment, driven by expectations around an increasing rate cycle, higher commodity prices and slowdown in growth. This comes following a net outflow of Rs 32,722 crore in May and an inflow of Rs 54,756 crore in April, data available with Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showed. Out of the 16 fixed-income or debt fund categories, 14 witnessed net outflows during the month under review.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are likely to seek from the finance ministry a six-month extension of the date for complying with the amendments to the Prevention of Money-Laundering Act (PMLA), citing implementation challenges. Sources said FPIs, through their custodians, were planning to approach the ministry, highlighting key concerns and seeking more clarification. The ministry, through a notification on March 7, lowered the threshold for reporting ultimate beneficial ownership (UBO) for non-profit organisations and politically exposed persons to 10 per cent from 25 per cent.
However, a net amount of Rs 11,119 crore was withdrawn from the debt segment during the same period. This translated into a net investment of Rs 1,003 crore.
The investment limit for foreign entities in Indian stock exchanges will be enhanced from 5 per cent to 15 per cent on par with domestic institutions.
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